Don’t Believe the Old Farmer’s Almanac – It’s Barely Ever Accurate
One of the biggest stories this week is the news that the Old Farmer's Almanac is predicting a long, cold winter. Well, don't believe it, here's why.
Old Farmer's Almanac says, "Our weather forecast methodology stems from a secret formula that was devised by our founder, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792," so, like Colonel Sanders and his secret fried chicken formula, Old Farmer's Almanac has a secret formula locked away in a black box at their office in New Hampshire that they won't share and can't be scientifically checked for any accuracy.
They say that they have modified the formula over the years, but they still rely on it and its way of predicting weather by using sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the sun, that can have a very real effect here on earth, but is weather patterns one of them?
They say yes, they claim to have an 80% accuracy rate, but several modern studies suggest that it is far from 80% and closer to just tossing some darts at a piece of paper with random forecasting terms.
The University of Illinois Department of Atmospheric Sciences took a look at their weather predictions and compared them to what actually happened with the weather, and found that the Old Farmer's Almanac was only right about 50% of the time.
According to Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist at OpenSnow.com, he says, "Since I see no track record of accuracy from the forecasts produced by the...Old Farmer’s Almanac, I have zero confidence in their forecasts."
And finally, take this into account, some of the world's most sophisticated weather prediction technology at the National Weather Service are only able to predict maybe two weeks with any sort of regular accuracy.
I, for one, don't believe in an almanac that bases its secret forecasting on a method invented in 1792, when George Washington was still president. Let's be honest, it's all about selling copies of the little book each year.