Mild or Wild? Farmers’ Almanac Drops Winter Forecast for Minnesota

We've reached that point of summer where we're hoping for a little relief from the heat and humidity, but I'm not sure how many Minnesotans are ready to start thinking about winter just yet.

The Farmers' Almanac just released its prediction for the 2026/2027 winter, while the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says forecasters are increasingly confident that a "Super El Niño" will impact weather patterns during our cold months.

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What is El Niño?

El Niño happens when the water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes significantly warmer than usual. That warm water pushes the Pacific jet stream south. When that jet stream shifts, it changes weather patterns across the globe, bringing heavy rain and floods to some regions while leaving others in drought.

What Does a Super El Niño Mean For Minnesota's Winter?

Weather experts expect the current El Niño to continue strengthening through late 2026, with a near-100% chance of developing into a "Super El Niño" that extends into spring 2027.

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Typically, a strong or Super El Niño pushes the polar jet stream further north into Canada, which historically leads to warmer-than-average winter temperatures and lower overall snowfall across Minnesota and Wisconsin.

However, the Minnesota DNR reminds us that El Niño doesn't mean winter is canceled. While we might see fewer major storms overall, individual systems can still pack a massive punch—the famous Halloween Blizzard of 1991 actually occurred during a strong El Niño year.

Farmers' Almanac 2026 Winter Forecast for the Upper Midwest

While ocean temperature models lean toward a milder winter, the Farmers' Almanac says people in the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Great Lakes shouldn't expect a quiet season.

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According to their outlook, we can expect:

• Fast-Moving Clippers & Squalls: Sudden, brief bursts of heavy snow paired with blustery arctic winds.
• Sudden Cold Snaps: Sharp, short-lived drops into bitter cold.
• Slick Travel Conditions: Rapid swings between freezing and thawing across the Midwest, leading to unpredictable road conditions.

Let's see if Mother Nature agrees. Here are some classic signs from nature that could signal a tough winter on the way.