Wheat Supplies Rise As Demand From Millers Falls

USDA February Crop Report Brings Few Surprises for Grain Markets

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report landed much as traders expected — quietly.

The February WASDE is traditionally viewed as a low-impact report, and this year was no different. While the USDA did make small adjustments to projected supplies of corn, soybeans, and wheat, none were large enough to significantly move grain prices.

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For corn, the USDA slightly lowered its estimate of ending stocks, citing strong foreign demand and no increase in domestic production. Ending stocks are now projected at about 2.1 billion bushels, down roughly 100 million bushels from the previous forecast. While that may sound significant, analysts say it remains a comfortable supply level and is unlikely to push corn prices sharply higher in the near term.

Soybean numbers were left unchanged in the U.S., with the USDA holding its ending supply estimate at 125.5 million metric tons. However, the agency raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop. That increase added modest downward pressure on soybean prices, as a larger South American harvest means more global supply competing with U.S. exports.

Wheat told a different story. The USDA raised wheat ending stocks, largely due to weaker demand from flour millers. The new estimate of 931 million bushels is about 9 percent higher than last year and marks the highest level since the 2019–2020 marketing season. Larger wheat supplies generally weigh on prices, and that trend remains intact.

Overall, grain markets barely reacted to the report. Instead, traders and farmers are already looking ahead to spring planting intentions and planting progress reports, which will provide a clearer picture of what U.S. farmers plan to grow — and where markets may head next.